{
  "schema_version": "pattern-publication-v1",
  "id": "pattern-security-knowability-2025-01-01",
  "slug": "security-knowability",
  "title": "What was knowable about insecurity at a historical cutoff?",
  "claim": "At 2025-01-01T23:59:58Z, the fixed Aegis replay contained 458 records eligible under its historical cutoff rules. The same frozen release contains 493 records first observed after that cutoff and 3 records whose eligible source was not observable by the cutoff. The observable record changed as later evidence entered the release; this is not an estimate of latent insecurity.",
  "summary": "A bounded historical reconstruction of the security record available by a specified time, with later observations kept separate.",
  "status": "publication_qualified",
  "published_at": null,
  "updated_at": "2026-08-26",
  "revision": 1,
  "research_question": {
    "prompt": "What could actually have been known about insecurity using the evidence available by the cutoff?",
    "place_scope": "Nigeria",
    "time_window": {
      "start": "2023-01-01",
      "end": "2025-01-01T23:59:58Z"
    },
    "cutoff": {
      "cutoff_time": "2025-01-01T23:59:58Z",
      "timezone": "UTC",
      "eligible_source_publication_rule": "source observable time must be at or before cutoff",
      "eligible_event_rule": "event first observed time must be at or before cutoff"
    }
  },
  "epistemic_classification": {
    "primary": "reconstruction",
    "labels": [
      "OBSERVED",
      "CALCULATED",
      "MODELLED",
      "INFERRED",
      "HUMAN JUDGMENT",
      "UNKNOWN"
    ],
    "observed": "The frozen release records events, source metadata, observation times, and release limitations.",
    "calculated": "Counts and comparisons on this page are deterministic calculations from the fixed release and cutoff.",
    "modelled": "The Aegis replay makes a time-bounded information snapshot; it does not model future incident probability.",
    "inferred": "The interpretation that the record changed as later evidence entered is an interpretation of the two time boundaries.",
    "human_judgment": "Pattern selects the question, public wording, and publication boundary; it does not turn the result into certainty.",
    "unknown": "The release cannot establish incidents that were never recorded, source coverage outside the release, or the full latent security situation."
  },
  "engine": "aegis",
  "engine_release": "aegis-ng-national-2023-2026-stage4-v1",
  "engine_data_version": "stage4-frozen-national-2026-07-12",
  "artifact_id": "run_f0ebd8da03688894604c89456848a73721c0447b3c6b9dbe1c3acb1d708d1717",
  "artifact_hash": "2f87a70c3c75764d5d58a1d6c0eba82bbd9aa64c7e5fd562e4ee522d06959bc5",
  "evidence_cutoff": "2025-01-01T23:59:58Z",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "aegis-release-manifest",
      "title": "Aegis Stage 4 release manifest",
      "reference": "aegis-ng-national-2023-2026-stage4-v1",
      "type": "release_metadata",
      "license": "release metadata"
    },
    {
      "id": "aegis-dataset-card",
      "title": "Aegis Stage 4 dataset card",
      "reference": "purpose, period, event count, and non-prediction boundary",
      "type": "dataset_documentation",
      "license": "release metadata"
    },
    {
      "id": "ucdp-ged-26-1",
      "title": "UCDP GED 26.1",
      "reference": "structured source represented in the release",
      "url": "https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ged/ged261-csv.zip",
      "type": "source_metadata",
      "license": "CC BY 4.0; attribution required"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_refs": [
    {
      "id": "aegis-cutoff-snapshot",
      "type": "replay_snapshot",
      "native_id": "f0ebd8da03688894604c89456848a73721c0447b3c6b9dbe1c3acb1d708d1717",
      "claim_class": "reconstruction",
      "visible_event_count": 458,
      "source_reference_count": 706
    },
    {
      "id": "aegis-release",
      "type": "engine_release",
      "native_id": "aegis-ng-national-2023-2026-stage4-v1",
      "data_version": "stage4-frozen-national-2026-07-12",
      "event_count": 954,
      "source_count": 1506
    },
    {
      "id": "aegis-cutoff-manifest",
      "type": "quality_manifest",
      "native_id": "quality/cutoff_replay_hashes.json",
      "deterministic": true
    }
  ],
  "observations": [
    {
      "label": "Records visible by cutoff",
      "value": 458,
      "classification": "CALCULATED",
      "detail": "Records included by the fixed replay snapshot."
    },
    {
      "label": "Records first observed later",
      "value": 493,
      "classification": "CALCULATED",
      "detail": "Release records with first observation after the cutoff."
    },
    {
      "label": "Pre-cutoff records without an eligible source",
      "value": 3,
      "classification": "CALCULATED",
      "detail": "Kept outside the snapshot because the source was not observable by cutoff."
    },
    {
      "label": "Source references in snapshot",
      "value": 706,
      "classification": "OBSERVED",
      "detail": "Unique source IDs available to the visible records."
    },
    {
      "label": "States represented",
      "value": 34,
      "classification": "OBSERVED",
      "detail": "State labels in the visible records; not a measure of equal coverage."
    },
    {
      "label": "Visible records by event year",
      "value": {
        "2023": 234,
        "2024": 224
      },
      "classification": "CALCULATED",
      "detail": "Event dates for records visible by cutoff."
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "This is not a complete national incident census.",
    "Reporting and source recovery are uneven across publishers, states, LGAs, and event types.",
    "Five events in the release have no usable coordinates and are spatially excluded.",
    "Administrative centroids are not incident-site coordinates.",
    "Official claims are not independent corroboration.",
    "Licensing permits metadata release more broadly than copyrighted source-content release.",
    "Absence from the cutoff snapshot does not prove that an incident did not occur."
  ],
  "unknowns": [
    "Incidents never captured by the release.",
    "Information unavailable to the source set at the historical cutoff.",
    "Whether the visible record represents the full underlying security situation."
  ],
  "method_ref": "Pattern V1 Security Knowability / Aegis cutoff-safe deterministic historical replay",
  "review": {
    "status": "publication_qualified",
    "basis": "Fixed reviewed release, deterministic cutoff manifest, explicit epistemic labels, source metadata, and limitations.",
    "human_signoff_before_deployment": true
  },
  "licensing": {
    "release_summary": {
      "public_metadata_only": 597,
      "public_release_allowed": 909
    },
    "public_content_boundary": "Public metadata and citation links only; no copyrighted source text or images are redistributed."
  },
  "related_investigation": "Security Knowability remains available in the private Pattern research application.",
  "public_page": "/patterns/security-knowability/",
  "prepared_at": "2026-08-26"
}